Research
Baltic incident reconstructions
Open-data timelines of grey-zone maritime incidents in the Baltic Sea. Each report combines AIS analysis from public reporting, OSINT citations, and a live-detector backtest: the alerts our anomaly detectors would have fired had they been monitoring at the time. All data sources are public and cited.
For the interactive map version with a timeline scrubber, open the live replay workbench.
Eagle S — Estlink 2, Dec 2024
On 25 December 2024 at 10:26 UTC, the Estlink 2 submarine power cable between Estonia and Finland failed. The Cook Islands–flagged tanker Eagle S, part of Russia's 'shadow fleet' and outbound from Ust-Luga with a cargo of unleaded gasoline, crossed the cable at the same moment. OSINT analysts noted the vessel slowed by ~25% in the minutes before the crossing and made a U-turn shortly after. Finnish police boarded Eagle S at 00:28 UTC on 26 December near Porkkala. The vessel had also reportedly been carrying surveillance equipment.
2024-12-25 → 2024-12-261 vessel(s)4 sources1 backtest alert(s)Yi Peng 3 — C-Lion1 + BCS East-West, Nov 2024
On 17–18 November 2024, the C-Lion1 (Helsinki–Rostock) and BCS East-West (Lithuania–Sweden) submarine telecom cables were damaged within 18 hours. The Chinese-flagged bulk carrier Yi Peng 3, outbound from Vistino (RU), crossed both cables around the time of damage. The vessel turned its AIS off for ~7.5 hours after passing Gotland — the gap covers the C-Lion1 crossing. Sweden later requested the vessel return for inspection; it ultimately weighed anchor and continued to Port Said.
2024-11-17 → 2024-11-211 vessel(s)4 sources2 backtest alert(s)Nord Stream 1 + 2 — Sep 2022
On 26 September 2022, four leaks were detected on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines near Bornholm. Seismic stations recorded two underwater explosions: 00:03 UTC (magnitude 2.3, NS2 in Danish EEZ) and 17:03 UTC (magnitude 2.1, three more leaks across NS1/NS2 in Swedish + Danish EEZs). Investigators later traced the 50-foot sailing yacht Andromeda — chartered from Rostock on 6 September with forged passports — to Wiek and Christiansø within 12 nm of the explosion sites. Russian salvage vessels (SS-750, SB-123, Sibiryakov) had also operated in the area on 21–22 September.
2022-09-06 → 2022-09-272 vessel(s)3 sources0 backtest alert(s)